000
AXNT20 KNHC 281121
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SUN FEB 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 3N30W 4N43W 2N50W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 
28W-30W... AND FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 44W-46W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
NEAR 27N93W PRODUCING 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS. THE E 
GULF E OF 90W STILL HAS 20-25 KT NW SURFACE WINDS. SCATTERED TO 
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF 
FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 83W-93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO 
MOVE TO N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND 
DECREASING SURFACE WIND SPEEDS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS 
ALONG 21N76W 19N80W 15N87W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA ALONG 18N78W 12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT. 25 KT NW SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE 
NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...THE 
TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS 
ALONG 19N60W 18N63W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHERMORE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
NOTED ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA FROM 9N-15N 
BETWEEN 81W-84W. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
PRODUCING ONLY MODERATE TRADEWINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH 
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W 
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT AND TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 60W PRODUCING SW UPPER 
LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM PUERTO RICO 
TO COSTA RICA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE 
CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 998 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N70W. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO E CUBA ALONG 26N71W 21N76W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N55W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N42W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 26N50W 19N60W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE TAIL END 
OF A COLD FRONT IS ALSO INLAND OVER MOROCCO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS 
... A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 35W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 35W WITH AXIS ALONG 
25W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO BE OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N54W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S 
TO PUERTO RICO. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO 
MOVE E TO MOVE TO 32N26W IN 24 HOURS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA