000 AXNT20 KNHC 280000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 5N30W 4N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST ALONG NEAR 3.5Q51W. NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE NOTED NEAR OR ALONG THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE LOW THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOW MOVED OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ONLY THE EXTENDED COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING THROUGH THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA ALONG 24W WITH A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE OTHER HAND...A NEW 1008 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST BASIN NEAR 27N84W. THIS LOW IS BRINGING A SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR TO THE REGION. THUS...A NEW COLD FRONT IS DEVELOPING FROM THIS SYSTEM...EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 25N83W 23N85W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THE LOW ENTERING THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 25N TO 27N. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WEST OF 87W...WITH ONLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN THIS REGION. LOOK FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWEST TIP OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ALONG WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS ALONG 21N79W 19N82W 15N85W. INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT ARE BEHIND THE TROUGH. ON THE FAR NORTHEASTERN BASIN...THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT EXTEND ACROSS THE US/UK ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ALONG 18N63W 18N64W 18N67W. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SCATTER SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BASIN EAST OF 74W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS OF THE WESTERN BASIN WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30W TO 70W...WITH THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE AROUND TWO 1018 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 29N36W AND 27N58W...PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ENTERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NEXT 8 TO 12 HOURS NORTH OF 26N WEST OF 65W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W CONTINUING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N50W 21N53W 18N58W...BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N10W EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N14W 21N20W 19N28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 20 NM AHEAD OF IT. LOOK FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA