000 AXNT20 KNHC 271726 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 27 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 4N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST ALONG 4N47W TO EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 33W-38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 47W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO W OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 28N86W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 25N86W 23N87W CONTINUING SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N90W 20N94W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW CROSSING FLORIDA AT FORT MYERS NEAR 27N82W CONTINUING EWD ALONG 27N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG 26N83W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...90 NM AHEAD AND 30 NM BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH...AS WELL AS COVERING MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA N OF 26N E OF 84W. RECENT LIGHTNING DATA ALSO INDICATES AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 87W-88W. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 90W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT BUILD TO THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE NW GULF PROVIDING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N85W TO 19N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 81W-88W ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A FRONT...EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM NEAR 18N62W TO S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA N OF 18N BETWEEN 71W-74W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS. ALOFT...SW FLOW COVERS THE AREA AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 55W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO TO REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS WITH IT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N67W DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS FLORIDA HAVE BEGUN TO EXTEND OFF THE ERN COAST N OF 27N W OF 78W ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 69W-73W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N51W CONTINUING S ALONG 26N53W 21N57W 18N62W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N. FARTHER E...A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 30N41W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 55W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N13W CROSSING THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 22N23W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 20N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 30 NM AHEAD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS TO NEAR 4N24W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON