000
AXNT20 KNHC 271146
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W 4N40W 1N50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 30W-33W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 29N88W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE 
SW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 28N88W 22N94W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS 
SE FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N82W. THE WARM FRONT 
LOCATION IS OBSCURED AND IS BASED ON WIND SHIFTS AND THETA-E 
GRADIENT. RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE COLD FRONT. RAIN IS ALSO OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 26N 
AND E OF 88W. 20-30 KT NW SURFACE WINDS ARE W OF THE COLD FRONT. 
10-15 SE SURFACE WINDS ARE E OF THE COLD FRONT. 
ELSEWHERE...BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE 
OVER THE NW GULF S OF LOUISIANA N OF 25N BETWEEN 90W-96W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MISSISSIPPI 
NEAR 31N90W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD IS 
OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE 
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE GULF IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 
HOURS...25-30 KT NW WINDS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH SOME 
COLD AIR ADVECTION.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO S OF HISPANIOLA ALONG 19N60W 17N65W 17N73W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
THE NE CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N E OF 
73W. FURTHER W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 
81W-86W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 
82W-84W. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 
ONLY MODERATE TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS 
OVER THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W 
PRODUCING SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT...THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD 
FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO 
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N66W. A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W 25N55W 19N60W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE TAIL END 
OF A COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N17W TO 
26N20W 21N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 
40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W WITH 
AXIS ALONG 25W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW 
TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W WITH A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDING S TO E CUBA. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD 
FRONT TO MOVE E TO MOVE E TO 32N41W IN 24 HOURS. CONVECTION WILL 
BE HEAVIEST N OF HISPANIOLA. THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO 
MOVE TO W AFRICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.      

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA