000
AXNT20 KNHC 270556
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SAT FEB 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N30W 4N45W 1N50W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 29W-33W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 
30N92W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO ALONG 28N92W 24N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
28-32N BETWEEN 88W-90W. 20-30 KT NW SURFACE WINDS ARE W OF THE 
FRONT. 10-15 SE SURFACE WINDS ARE E OF THE FRONT. A 1017 MB HIGH 
IS CENTERED OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW 
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 27N E OF 90W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 
31N92W. AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD IS OVER 
THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 91W. MORE HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AN W CUBA S OF 26N E OF 83W. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT... THE COLD 
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO BELIZE IN 24 
HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...25-30 KT NW WINDS 
OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO S OF JAMAICA ALONG 20N60W 17N65W 17N76W. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
THE NE CARIBBEAN...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA N OF 17N E OF 
75W. FURTHER W...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 82W. 
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 81W-84W. A 
RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING ONLY 
MODERATE TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGER WINDS OVER 
THE MONA AND WINDWARD PASSAGES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W PRODUCING 
SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EXPECT...THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO 
BE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT 
MORE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND OVER HISPANIOLA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 24N66W. A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N56W 25N56W 20N60W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE TAIL END 
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N20W TO 25N27W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 40W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W WITH AXIS ALONG 
25W. EXPECT THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W IN 24 
HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE E TO 32N44W IN 24 HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE HEAVIEST N 
OF HISPANIOLA.      

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA