000 AXNT20 KNHC 261136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N89W. ALOFT...MAINLY W-SW FLOW AND MODERATELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN GULF S OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N93W THEN ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO CORPUS CHRISTI THAT REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH FAR EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO 18N69W TO 15N75W TO 12N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MORE CONCENTRATION FOUND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 15N...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA AND ALSO OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA N OF 18N BETWEEN 67W-74W. ALOFT...A BROAD RIDGE CONTROLS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC ANCHORED INLAND OVER NE VENEZUELA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE WEST ALONG 10N AND IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN COUPLED WITH CONVERGENT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 13N W OF 67W. MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N61W AND EXTENDS SSW ALONG 25N63W TO THE FAR EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 22N AND N OF 22N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 50W. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOW WEST OF THE FRONT WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY N OF 22N. ALOFT...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N47W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO HELP SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION E OF THE COLD FRONT. A 999 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N34W IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N32W 23N38W TO A WEAK 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N53W...THEN SURFACE TROUGHING SW TO NEAR 17N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING N OF 22N BETWEEN 22W-34W. ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 22N. THIS LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGHING IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN