000 AXNT20 KNHC 260555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N28W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 8W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N89W. ALOFT...MAINLY W-SW FLOW AND MODERATELY DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE FRIDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH HISPANIOLA TO 18N72W TO 15N76W THEN TO WESTERN PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MORE CONCENTRATION FOUND S OF 16N...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA...AND ACROSS WESTERN HISPANIOLA. ALOFT...A BROAD RIDGE CONTROLS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC ANCHORED INLAND OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE WEST ALONG 10N AND IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN COUPLED WITH CONVERGENT EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 14N W OF 68W. MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE W ATLC NEAR 32N65W AND EXTENDS SSW ALONG 25N67W TO NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 23N BETWEEN 48W-64W. STRONG NW WINDS FOLLOW WEST OF THE FRONT WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY N OF 22N. ALOFT...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO BEYOND 32N51W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO HELP SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION E OF THE FRONT. A 1003 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N40W IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N38W 22N45W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING N OF 20N BETWEEN 28W-42W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS LOW AND SURFACE TROUGHING IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC E OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN