000 AXNT20 KNHC 241134 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N12W 03N20W 02N30W 01N40W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1SN52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS FROM 14W TO 27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 24/0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK 1011 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 24N92W ACROSS THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE CITY OF VERACRUZ WHICH IS REPORTING GUSTY WINDS OF 35 KT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0412 UTC CAPTURED NLY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHERE A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. COLD AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN AS DEPICTED BY A DENSE LOW TO MID CLOUD DECK COVERING EASTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES SOUTH FLORIDA STRETCHING WESTWARD TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW PRES. A DEEP LAYER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA TO EASTERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO SUPPORTS THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. A JET-STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND STRETCHES FROM NE MEXICO TO N FLORIDA/SOUTH GEORGIA WITH CORE WINDS OF 130 TO 150 KT. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF REGION. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SE OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA WITH AN ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 87W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE WIND SHIFT RELATED TO THIS TROUGH. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE...THE TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0230 UTC SHOWING ONLY NE TO E WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE NORMALLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BLOW. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ON A HIGH CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF PANAMA. WLY WINDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH ARE DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN...CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND JAMAICA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W THU AFTERNOON. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SE OVER HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN STALL FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO SW CARIBBEAN FRI AND DISSIPATE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A VERY COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS NOTED OVER THE W ATLC. BASED ON SURFACE DATA AND AN ASCAT PASS A 1004 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP NEAR 23N64W. A TROUGH...REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH STRETCHES EWD FROM THE SAME LOW PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE A THIRD SFC TROUGH EXTENDS NWD FROM THE LOW TO ANOTHER 996 LOW PRES LOCATED N OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS SECOND LOW PRES TO SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. A WEAK 1010 MB HIGH IS IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES NEAR 25N73W...AND A NEW LOW PRES IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO DEVELOP JUST OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS. IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE W ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE LOW PRES NEAR 23N64W WILL RACE EWD TO A POSITION NEAR 28N52W. A BROAD BUT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N29W. TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS 57W N OF 26N IS HELPING TO INDUCE A LARGE AREA OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THAT ROUGHLY COVERS ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 37W AND 57W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR