000
AXNT20 KNHC 240541
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N12W 03N20W 03N35W THEN INLAND 
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 13W-25W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 07N14W AND OVER LIBERIA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 24/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR 
TUXPAN MEXICO THEN CONTINUES MAINLY N ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES 
OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN. COLD AIR HAS PENETRATED INTO THE 
SIERRA MADRES AS DEPICTED BY A RATHER UNIFORM STRATUS CLOUDS 
COVER OVER EASTERN MEXICO. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
BEHIND THE FRONT. A DEEP LAYER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
THE GREAT LAKES AREA TO CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTS THIS FRONT. A 
JET-STREAM BRANCH ROUNDS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH AND STRETCHES 
FROM NE MEXICO TO N FLORIDA WITH CORE WINDS OF 130-150 KT. SWLY 
WINDS ALOFT DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GULF. THESE 
WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. 
THE COLD IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE OF AREA LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH AN ASSOCIATED NARROW BAND OF 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER 
OF THE BASIN. THE TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA AND A 
MUCH EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED SE TO S WINDS OVER THE WESTERN 
HALF OF THE BASIN. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE 
CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND DRAWING 
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN.  
MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ACROSS THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO 
THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE TODAY AND STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE 
TO COSTA RICA THU AND FRI. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N65W TO HISPANIOLA. WEST OF THIS 
TROUGH THERE IS A WEAK HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 26N74W EXPECTED 
TO MOVE NE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. A BROAD BUT WEAK SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 
1020 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 24N30W. TRADE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED 
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH OVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN 
DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS 59W N OF 26N IS HELPING TO INDUCE A 
LARGE AREA OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED TSTMS JUST EAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. 
THIS CLOUDINESS COVERS ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 
60W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
GR