000 AXNT20 KNHC 230543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 23 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 1N30W 1N40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 19W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 23/0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA ALONG 26N85W TO 24N91W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT NEAR 25N84W. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE E OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO INVADE THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF REGION. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER TROUGH N OF THE GULF WATERS. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 130-150 KT CROSSES THE N WATERS WITH A NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE GULF. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THEN TURNING NE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED TO THE NORTH OF THIS BAND. A SECOND STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THIS EVENING AND RACE SE OF AREA LATE THU. STRONG NLY WINDS LIKELY REACHING GALE FORCE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE W GULF THU AND MOVE E FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS W CUBA TO OFF THE COAST OF E CUBA INTO HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF E CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN CONTINUES WWD ACROSS PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MAINLY DRY STABLE CONDITIONS. ALOFT...WLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE WED AND STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA THU AND FRI. NLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC DRAWING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OVER THE W ATLC GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS W OF 70W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER A PORTION OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 26N53W. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N29W ALONG 20N50W INTO THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN OVER THE LEEWARD/ VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 23N21W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR