000 AXNT20 KNHC 221749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6.5N10W...WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W EQ30W 3N40W TO THE NORTHEAST BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2.5N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 10W AND 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SUPPORTING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...EXTENDING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST GULF TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALONG 30N86W 27N90W 26N97W. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE BROAD CONVECTION CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING THE NORTH-WESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 28N TO 29N. WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE 50 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE SOUTHEAST BASIN OF THE GULF...AN AREA OF CONVERGING WINDS ARE CREATING AN AREA OF WEAK LOWER PRESSURE WITH A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF TO WESTERN CUBA ALONG 24N89W 23N86W 22N83W. SHOWERS ORIGINATING FROM THIS TROUGH ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH OF 26N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OF AIR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP/STRONG CONVECTION OF MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ORIGINATES FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND ENTERS THE FAR NORTHWEST BASIN. THIS LINE CONTINUES ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 23N83W 22N81W 21N79W. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRIKE THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEAK SCATTER OVERNIGHT. OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST BASIN OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...REMNANT ENERGY FROM A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 18N62W 17N65W 17N68W CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND SOUTHEAST DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTER SHOWERS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE MENTIONED ISLANDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD REACH THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BY TUESDAY MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 22N. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL MIXED AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WEAK SCATTER SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CAN BE TRACED FROM THE NORTHWEST AFRICAN COAST TO THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 32N10W 25N30W 21N50W 17N63W. A LINE OF SURFACE CONVERGING WINDS ORIGINATES FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...TRANSPORTING THE CONVECTION EASTWARD TO THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...FROM 23N TO 27N. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING WEAK SCATTER OVERNIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA