000 AXNT20 KNHC 221120 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON FEB 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1000 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N8W ALONG 2N20W 1N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 10W-13W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 19W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM A 1007 MB LOW OVER SW MISSISSIPPI ENTERING THE GULF WATERS SW OF NEW ORLEANS CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 25N97W. A SECOND COLD FRONT HUGS THE NW COASTLINE FROM LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA TO NEAR CORPUS CRISTI TEXAS. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE E ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NRN GEORGIA AND SE ALABAMA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXTEND OVER THE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W-90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 24N82W ALONG 24N TO 90W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING E ACROSS S FLORIDA S OF 26N. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS IN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE GULF ALONG 26N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE WRN MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONTS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE E. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTEND INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF WRN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT...CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN TO THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE FRONT EXTENDS S OF ANGUILLA...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA ALONG 17N TO 70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 77W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS. ALOFT...ZONAL WLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN EMBEDDED WITH MODERATE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS S FLORIDA EXTEND INTO THE SW N ATLC REACHING PAST THE BAHAMAS TO 74W. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 31N74W. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN THE U.S. ERN SEABOARD. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE AND CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER AFRICA NEAR 32N1W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 23N32W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 20N46W TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W...AND ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ALOFT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS PROVIDING MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR EQ25W IS SUPPORTING THE ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON