000 AXNT20 KNHC 220535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 22 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W ALONG 2N20W 1N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 7W-11W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 20W-27W...AND BETWEEN 30W-32W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE NW GULF FROM A 1007 MB LOW OVER N CENTRAL LOUISIANA ENTERING THE GULF WATERS NEAR PORT ARTHUR TEXAS CONTINUING SSW TO NEAR 23N96W. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE E ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WRN KENTUCKY ACROSS TENNESSEE...ALABAMA...AND ERN LOUISIANA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE BOUNDARY AND EXTEND OVER THE GULF N OF 28N BETWEEN 87W-92W. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOME OF THE STORM CELLS IN THIS SYSTEM. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 82W-89W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING E ACROSS S FLORIDA S OF 27N. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS IN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF ALONG 26N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO EXTEND INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF WRN CUBA. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO BRING RAIN TO THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA ALONG 19N TO 73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS. ALOFT...ZONAL WLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN EMBEDDED WITH MODERATE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS S FLORIDA EXTEND INTO THE SW N ATLC REACHING TO THE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING DOWN THE U.S. ERN SEABOARD. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NE AND CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER AFRICA NEAR 32N1W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 23N31W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 20N49W TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 42W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. ALOFT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS PROVIDING MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. HOWEVER....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO NEAR EQ24W IS SUPPORTING THE ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT AS WELL AS CONVECTION ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON