000
AXNT20 KNHC 212359
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 1N25W 4N40W 3N51W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
27W-42W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS NEAR 
32N96W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W PRODUCING A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT 
AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT. CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE GULF AS NOTED ON RADAR 
IMAGERY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. 
A WARM AIRMASS WITH SE SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE GULF WITH 
POSSIBLE DENSE SEA FOG ALONG THE TEXAS COAST E OF THE COLD 
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG 130-150 KT JETSTREAM IS 
OVER THE N GULF WITH ZONAL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N 
GULF N OF 27N. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE 
GULF S OF 24N AND E OF 90W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND 
FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS 
WITH SHOWERS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS ...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA ALONG 19N60W 
17N73W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. RADAR 
IMAGERY OVER PUERTO RICO SHOWS HEAVIEST RAIN IS JUST S OF THE 
ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
ALSO ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SIMILAR LOW 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N 
OF 20N BETWEEN 80W-87W. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N 
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...MORE SHOWERS 
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...CUBA AND JAMAICA OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA   
NEAR 32N75W PRODUCING SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER OVER THE 
W ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLANTIC TO THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N10W 21N40W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY 
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1016 MB HIGH IS 
CENTERED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 19N32W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER SE OF THE CAPE 
VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N22W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AREA. EXPECT THE ATLANTIC FRONTS TO DRIFT E OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY OVER THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS DUE THE GULF OF 
MEXICO COLD FRONT.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA