000 AXNT20 KNHC 211750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 21 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W ALONG 2.5N20W 2N30W 4N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 32W AND 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A RATHER EAST TO WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF 21N...MOVING ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FROM THE JET STREAK'S FRONT LEFT QUADRANT...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF...IS ENHANCING SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON THE EASTERN HALF THE GULF...NORTH OF 22N EAST OF 90W. OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...LOOK FOR THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SURFACE FLOW IS PUSHING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN US STATES. THUS...A WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE BASIN ALONG 26N84W 28N89W 28N94W 27N96W. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS ENTERS THE NORTHWEST BASIN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. ALSO...A TROUGH IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ BRINGING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF AT WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUE TO CREATE CONVECTION NEAR THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THROUGH ANGUILLA...EXTENDING WESTWARD TO NEAR 16N71W. MULTIPLE SCATTER SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY OVER THE MENTIONED ISLANDS. ALSO...AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE IS FOUND OVER HISPANIOLA FROM A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE NORTH CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CONTINUES SW TO SOUTHEAST HAITI. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS BRINGING CONTINUOUS CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN BASIN FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THIS BOX...DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS BRINGING FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LOOK FOR WEAK CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. ALSO IN 24 HOURS...WINDS OVER THE NW BASIN...NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 92W...WILL START TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ALONG WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 21N. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A RATHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 22N63W...BRINGING SCATTER SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. ALSO...THE REMNANTS OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST AFRICA TO THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTER SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT ALONG 30N10W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N22W...BECOMING DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 23N35W TO 21N45W...BECOMING DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 18N62W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE 80 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE SCATTER SHOWERS ARE 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. IN 24 HOURS...THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...HIGH PRESSURE IS ENTERING THE WESTERNS BASIN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER WEST OF 50W NORTH OF 20N. DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS NOTED SOUTH OF 17N EAST OF 60W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA