000
AXNT20 KNHC 210539
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W ALONG 2N20W 
2N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 26W-33W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE SRN COAST OF 
TEXAS NEAR 27N96W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER EWD 
ALONG 28N94W 26N88W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS 
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE AXIS...AND 90 
NM S OF THE AXIS. THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING 
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1021 MB 
HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL 
JETSTREAM BISECTS THE BASIN ALONG 25N WITH ZONAL WLY FLOW. DRY 
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 25N...WHILE E PACIFIC 
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 25N SUPPORTING 
HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO DISSIPATE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT N AHEAD 
OF A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NW WATERS LATER TODAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S 
OF A STRONG JETSTREAM IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NW 
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS RUN 
FROM BELIZE TO WRN CUBA. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 
BRING RAIN TO THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS 
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SAINT CROIX TO S OF CENTRAL 
PUERTO RICO. RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATES SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND 
POSSIBLE FLOODING. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING 
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS. 
ALOFT...ZONAL WLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN EMBEDDED WITH 
MODERATELY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE...BESIDES THE NW CARIBBEAN. 
EXPECT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MOISTURE 
LINGERING BEHIND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW 
CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
CONTINUES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
ATLC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 33N. 
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH 
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR 
WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLC. A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS MUCH OF 
THE NE AND CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N13W ALONG 25N30W 21N50W BECOMING A DYING 
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N63W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE FRONT N OF E OF 
35W...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT 
ELSEWHERE. WHILE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE 
BASIN...THE ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 45N28W. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE S OF THE FRONT 
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 18N31W SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR 
WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON