000 AXNT20 KNHC 201752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT FEB 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR THE EQUATOR AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 21W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 25N-28N E OF 88W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD WHILE LEAVING BEHIND A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N94W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 25N87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SW GULF NEAR 19N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE MOST OF THE WESTERN GULF S OF 28N W OF 90W...MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST LATE SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO THAT CONTINUES ADVECTING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MOISTURE IS AIDING IN POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N79W TO CENTRAL BELIZE NEAR 17N88W. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TO S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONT. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATES CONTINUED HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISLAND DUE TO CONVERGENT NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A LIKELY LAND BREEZE COMING OFF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL THAT BISECTS THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 76W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 50W IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N FROM NE OF THE BAHAMAS TO 30W. THE UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLC ANCHORED ON A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N75W SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST UPPER LEVEL JET. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE HOWEVER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND AREAS SW TOWARDS EASTERN CUBA. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NE ATLC NEAR 32N21W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 25N37W TO 21N52W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM N OF 25N-32N BETWEEN 15W-33W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 24W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N23W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN