000 AXNT20 KNHC 201123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 4N20W 4N30W 4N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3N BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND OVER BRAZIL FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 49W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING S OF LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 26N94W AT 20/09 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 23N95W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO AT 21N97W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E OF THE LOW ALONG 26N92W 26N90W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 86W-94W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 94W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AROUND A PAIR OF 1022 MB HIGHS OVER SE ALABAMA AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVING NE...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH ALSO EXTEND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM S OF ERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE AXIS S OF 17N. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 17N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATES A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG THE NRN COAST OF THE ISLAND DUE TO CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NELY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND A LIKELY LAND BREEZE COMING OFF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE THAT BISECTS THE ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS STAYING DRY AND CLEAR WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 55W. EXPECT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATED BY SUN BRINGING CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM N OF THE BAHAMAS TO 35W ALONG 30N. THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST UPPER LEVEL JET. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MADE THEIR WAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE WRN BAHAMAS. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING HISPANIOLA AND THE FAR SE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NE AND CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N25W ALONG 26N37W 22N52W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD...AND 90 NM BEHIND OF THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM AHEAD... AND 120 NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS E OF FRONT N OF 27N W OF 17W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACCOMPANIED AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 21N25W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NE BRAZIL TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON