000 AXNT20 KNHC 200619 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT FEB 20 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W ALONG 5N20W 5N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 22W-26W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND OVER BRAZIL FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 50W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING S OF LOUISIANA CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A WEAK 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N91W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 24N93W 22N96W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE E SIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE TROUGH TO 85W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 85W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN GULF IS UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH OVER SRN ALABAMA. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING NE AND DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH MAY EXTEND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 17N72W BECOMING A DISSIPATING FRONT TO NEAR 15N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND FAR ERN CUBA. A CLOUD LINE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE TAIL END OF THE DYING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE PANAMA COAST ALONG 13N79W TO 9N80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS STAYING DRY AND CLEAR WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 57W. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE NRN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM IS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC FROM N OF THE BAHAMAS TO 35W ALONG 30N. THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE ATLC BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLC SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING HISPANIOLA AND THE FAR SE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N29W ALONG 25N41W 22N53W BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS E OF FRONT N OF 27N W OF 21W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF NEWFOUNDLAND TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACCOMPANIED AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 20N30W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NE BRAZIL TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. EXPECT THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON