000 AXNT20 KNHC 192357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2350 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W EQ50W. WEAK CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE FOUND ALONG OR NEAR THE ITCZ AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1015 MB LOW IS NEAR 27N93W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST BASIN ALONG 24N94W 20N95W. THIS LOW IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL BASIN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS RELATED TO THE CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN NORTH OF 24N EAST OF 94W...WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 80 NM EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 24N TO 27N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER FROM A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KT OVER MOST OF THE REGION...SHIFTING SOUTHEAST WEST OF 92W NORTH OF 25N. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE CURRENT SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING NORTHEAST BECOMING A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND ENTER THE NORTHWEST GULF BY LATE SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE EAST TROPICAL PACIFIC IS STREAMING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST BASIN...SEEN AS HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W. ON THE OTHER HAND...MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN EAST OF 83W. THIS DRY UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS IS PREVENTING ANY DEEP STRONG CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FROM THE WEAK SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT...ANALYZED FROM SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO TO THE SOUTH WEST BASIN ALONG 16N70W 15N74W 12N79W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN. LOOK FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WHILE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEST OF 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL EAST TO WEST ORIENTED LONGWAVE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REGION ALONG 32N31W 27N42W 24N50W BECOMING STATIONARY TO NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. ELSEWHERE FAR EAST OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 20N35W BRINGING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC EAST OF 40W. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN 24 HOURS...LOOK FOR THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA