000 AXNT20 KNHC 191743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W THEN TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 14W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 19/1500 UTC...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 25N97W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST TO 20N96W. THIS RELATIVELY WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER NE MEXICO THAT IS MOVING TO THE NE. E TO SE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N AND REMAINING MAINLY W OF 90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SE FROM A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CURRENT SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN GULF DRIFTS NE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY SUNDAY...THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS LATE SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION IS ADVECTING ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NW OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL BELIZE NEAR 17N88W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W. A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 16N70W TO 14N77W. LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NE WINDS ARE FEEDING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS. ALOFT...DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ARE NOTED AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 30N40W 20N60W AND TRANSITIONS STATIONARY TO THE ANEGADA PASSAGE NEAR 18N64W. A SECONDARY DISSIPATING COLD FRONT TRAILS BEHIND ALONG 31N44W TO 23N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM WEST...90 NM EAST OF THE PRIMARY FRONT S OF 25N...AND N OF 25N BETWEEN 25W AND THE PRIMARY FRONT. A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND WNW WINDS COVER THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT ITSELF IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 36N38W TO 30N50W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE EAST OF THIS SHORTWAVE IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS SPREADING EAST OF THE FRONT INTO THE NE ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC AND SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1020 MB SURFACE HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 27N22W AND 23N27W. THE RIDGE IS PROMOTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE THE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN