000 AXNT20 KNHC 191120 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0745 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 4N20W 1N30W 1N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-14W...AND BETWEEN 16W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A NEARLY STATIONARY 1024 MB HIGH JUST OFFSHORE OF MOBILE ALABAMA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING KEEP THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY AND STABLE. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH LINING THE S TEXAS AND MEXICO COASTLINE FROM 27N97W TO 21N97W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS...HEAVY IN SOME AREAS...S OF 29N W OF 93W INDICATED BY RADAR IMAGERY. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE...WITH SELY RETURN FLOW INCREASING TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND CENTRAL CONUS ALONG WITH A STRONG JET STREAM ACROSS THE NRN GULF IS CARRYING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE BASIN. AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AND MEXICO IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICO COASTLINE. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SHIFT EWD ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NW WATERS LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS NOW PUSHED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO EXTENDING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W ALONG 17N70W TO 17N74W WHERE IT BECOMES A DYING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE COSTA RICA/PANAMA BORDER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY S OF 16N. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 65W. EXPECT THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT...WHILE THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N42W ALONG 23N55W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TRAILS BEHIND ALONG 32N47W TO 26N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM BEHIND...AND 60 NM AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 28N BETWEEN 52W-65W. A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF NOVA SCOTIA SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E WITH AXIS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO THE AZORES IS ENHANCING THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N W OF 35W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N30W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOST LIKELY SUPPORTING THE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ERN ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON