000 AXNT20 KNHC 190531 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W ALONG 4N20W 1N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 19W-24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH JUST OFFSHORE OF MOBILE ALABAMA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH LINING THE S TEXAS AND MEXICO COASTLINE FROM 27N96W TO 21N97W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 28N W OF 94W INDICATED BY RADAR IMAGERY. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE...INCREASING TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF AND CENTRAL CONUS IS CARRYING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CONUS AND W MEXICO IS SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICO COASTLINE...AND WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NW WATERS LATE SUNDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 65W. A SHEAR LINE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 17N75W TO 12N81W. CONVERGENCE IN THE WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE AXIS IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N43W ALONG 25N53W 24N59W 22N63W BECOMING STATIONARY TO CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N58W TO 19N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM BEHIND...AND 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE...AND WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF NOVA SCOTIA SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E IS ENHANCING THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 31W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N30W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOST LIKELY SUPPORTING THE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ERN ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON