000
AXNT20 KNHC 181137
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST THU FEB 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 1N26W 2N43W TO INLAND OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM N EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 
10W-26W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE E GULF S OF 
28N TO THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE FLORIDA 
KEYS. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF 
DRAWING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE S 
GULF. THIS IS GENERATING OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS SW OF A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA AND A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS 
OF 90 TO 160 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST JET 
STREAK OVER THE NE GULF. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN 
CONTROL ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 
GALVESTON.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE 
W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER HAITI E OF JAMAICA TO 16N77W WHERE IT 
BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST 
OF PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND S 
OF 14N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. 
PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN TO OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE 
CARIBBEAN INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY 
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA BRINGING DRY 
STABLE AIR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING CLEAR 
SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W EXTENDING SW TO 
29N76W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS THAT COVER THE W ATLC W OF 64W. A PREVIOUSLY ESTABLISHED 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N44W EXTENDING SW 
ALONG 28N47W TO 26N53W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 24N61W 
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN OVER HAITI. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT S OF 25N 
AND WITHIN 90 E OF THE FRONT S OF 22N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC IS PROVIDING 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 200 NM OF A LINE FROM 31N33W ACROSS THE COLD FRONT TO 
30N56W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N37W.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE