000
AXNT20 KNHC 171755
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST WED FEB 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1615 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 2N18W 1N31W 2N45W 1N51W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WITH CORE WINDS OVER 160 KT 
IS LOCATED AT 200 MB. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE 
REGION OF THE JET STREAK IS SUPPORTING A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH 
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT 
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ARKLAMISS REGION DURING THE NEXT DAY...AND 
THEN WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ADDITIONAL EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE 
WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND 
TO THE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF INTO THE WEEKEND. 
LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN RESPONSE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION 
OVER RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. 
AN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IS STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO AND 
INTO THE WESTERN GULF SPREADING SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS WEST OF 
93.5W...WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF OF DENSE CIRRUS OVERCAST.
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENVELOPS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA...WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO JET 
STREAK BRUSHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS JET STREAK IS SPREADING 
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. 
OTHERWISE...DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR JUXTAPOSED WITH DEEP-LAYER 
STABILITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE IS RESULTING IN FAIR 
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CARIBBEAN. 
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES ARE ADVECTING POCKETS OF 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...THICKEST 
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY 
FRONT EXTENDING FROM EAST CUBA TO 16N82W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
EXTENDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS COUPLED WITH A JET 
STREAK FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. STRONG 
AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES 
ARE SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N55W TO 
23N73W TO EASTERN CUBA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N53W 
TO 24N63W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. BANDS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS 
EMBEDDED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THESE FEATURES. STRONG SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE AT 1019 MB IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF 
SUBSIDENCE AND FAIR WEATHER OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. OVER THE 
EASTERN ATLC...A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE IS PRESENT WITH AN 
ASSOCIATED 996 MB SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA. STRONG 
WINDS...ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 30 KT...ARE WITHIN 600 NM IN THE 
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO 
THE EASTERN DISCUSSION AREA FROM 31N19W TO 22N23W...AND 
APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED IN THE WIND 
FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS 
AROUND 17/1045 UTC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ARIEL COHEN/JOHN CANGIALOSI/JORGE AGUIRRE