000
AXNT20 KNHC 170544
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST WED FEB 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 2N24W 3N45W TO INLAND OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 20W-24W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE 
WEEKEND HAS LEFT COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE. THE 
UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED E OVER THE NE GULF WHILE THE REMAINDER 
OF THE GULF MAINTAINS NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DRAWING 
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF. THIS 
IS GENERATING OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
S OF 27N W OF 91W AND A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 100 TO 
160 KT ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AREA. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
REMAINS IN CONTROL ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF 
TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA 
BETWEEN SANTA CLARA AND CAMAGUEY W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 
INLAND OVER BELIZE NEAR 17N88W AND TO THE E IS A PRE-FRONTAL 
SURFACE TROUGH ENTERING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER W 
JAMAICA ALONG 16N81W TO OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 12N83W. 
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM 
W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 15N AND BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE W 
TROPICAL ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA BRINGING DRY STABLE AIR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN RESULTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS 
THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N 
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND S NICARAGUA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N65W EXTENDING SW ALONG 
26N72W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER CUBA BETWEEN SANTA CLARA AND 
CAMAGUEY WITH A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N61W 
ALONG 24N68W INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE 
COLD FRONT AS WELL AS WITHIN 150/180 E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED 
BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N49W.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE