000
AXNT20 KNHC 161138
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N4W 3N23W 2N42W TO INLAND OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SMALL AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 43W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 16/0900 UTC...THE COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE GULF OF MEXICO 
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LEAVING IN ITS 
WAKE OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF A 
LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W 
AND FROM THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N89W TO OVER MEXICO AND 
S TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THE UPPER 
SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT REMAINS OVER THE E US AND THE N GULF OF 
MEXICO N OF 27N AND A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90-140 KT ACROSS 
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT 
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 16/0900 UTC...THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM THE 
W ATLC ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN HAVANA AND SANTA CLARA WITH 
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING 
THE AREA W OF A LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR SANTIAGO DE CUBA TO THE NE 
TIP OF HONDURAS. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED 
BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND INTO THE 
W TROPICAL ATLC. THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING ISOLATED 
SHOWERS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES MAINLY BETWEEN SAINT LUCIA AND 
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
AT 16/0900 UTC...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N75W 
EXTENDING SSW INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN HAVANA AND SANTA 
CLARA. SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO BEYOND 
32N74W INCLUDING S FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE 
AREA E OF THE FRONT AND W OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W 
27N62W TO 33N68W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W 
ATLC AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 
25N56W. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF NW AFRICA ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N27W WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 31N. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE