000
AXNT20 KNHC 152351
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST MON FEB 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N20W 3.5N40W 3N50W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG OR NEAR THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND 
IT'S NOW OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE 
GULF...CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 32N81W AND 
CONTINUING THROUGH 25N85W 21N90W 18N94W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 
25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE FAR WESTERN BASIN. GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 95W...WITH SEAS 8 TO 13 FEET. AS 
THIS FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...A SURFACE 1027 MB HIGH SLOWLY 
ENTERS THE REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. SATELLITE 
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENT CLEARING IN THIS AREA. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE 
NORTHWEST BASIN BRINGING A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS TO THE REGION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA. THEREFORE...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATE TO FRESH 
TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A FEW 
SCATTER SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST BASIN WEST OF 82W 
NORTH OF 17N. THIS SHOWERS ARE IDENTIFIED AS PRE-FRONTAL 
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY 
OVER THE EAST-SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS FRONT ENTERS THE 
FAR NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BASIN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...EXPECT 
OVERCAST SKIES AND SHOWERS IN WESTERN CUBA AND REST OF NORTHWEST 
BASIN.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE 
ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 32N EAST AND WEST OF DISCUSSION AREA. THIS 
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN 
BASIN NEAR 28N69W...AND ANOTHER 1018 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL 
BASIN NEAR 22N43W. MOSTLY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS NOTED 
ACROSS THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS BOUNDARY ENTERS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA AS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N24W TO 28N42W...BECOMING WEAK 
STATIONARY TO 24N62W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE 
EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC BASIN.

OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE FAR WESTERN 
ATLANTIC BASIN WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA