000
AXNT20 KNHC 151743
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST MON FEB 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 4N40W 3N50W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 10W-13W...FROM 4N-6N 
BETWEEN 20W-24W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 41W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH TEXAS 
NEAR 29N100W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N84W 25N90W 21N97W. 
THE FRONT CONTINUES INLAND TO N MEXICO ALONG 24N100W 28N104W. 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF 
THE FRONT. 25-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 
THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT SE SURFACE 
WINDS. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF S OF 28N 
AND W OF 88W. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND 
FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES PRESENTLY RANGE FROM THE 40'S OVER THE 
NORTH GULF STATES...TO THE 60'S S OF FRONT AND OVER MOST OF 
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SSW FLOW PREVAILS... WITH A 
110-130 KT JET OVER THE N GULF N OF 21N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF FROM 21N-27N W OF 
88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS DOTS THE AREA NAMELY OVER 
N HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...JAMAICA...THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND 
NICARAGUA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N AND W OF 83W. MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
ALONG 60W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN  OF 
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. A PATCH OF UPPER MOISTURE AND 
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT...OVERCAST 
SKIES AND SHOWERS OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS DUE TO PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N75W. A COLD FRONT 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO 29N40W 25N60W 
DISSIPATING TO 20N70W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 22N42W. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER 
MOROCCO PRODUCING SHOWERS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC W OF 40W WITH AXIS ALONG 60W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT...THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD 
FRONT TO REACH 32N71W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS ALSO EXPECT THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH SHOWERS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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FORMOSA