000
AXNT20 KNHC 150558
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST MON FEB 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 4N17W 2N32W 2N43W CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N 
OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-10W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 38W-44W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED 
BY A 1019 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA N OF TAMPA NEAR 
29N84W BUT IS GIVING WAY TO THE NEXT FRONT THAT MOVED INTO THE 
NW GULF AT 15/0300 ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST JUST W OF VERMILION 
BAY SW TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. FRONT IS 
INDICATED BY A WELL DEFINED BUT NARROW SQUALL LINE. OVERCAST 
LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT WITH 
GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT AS THE IT MOVES FURTHER 
OFFSHORE. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT REMAINS OVER THE 
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. OTHERWISE...NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE GULF DRAWING 
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO SUPPORTING SOME HIGH 
CLOUDS AND A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90-125 KT ACROSS THE AREA. 
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE ACROSS THE SW GULF S OF 24N W OF 85W. EXPECT THE SURFACE 
RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE 
GULF EXITING THE AREA EARLY TUE. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...NOW A SURFACE TROUGH...ENTER THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 11N78W IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE TROUGH WHILE 
THE E CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT BEING 
INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED 
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO 
THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB 
HIGH OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL 
ATLC NEAR 32N42W FROM A LARGE 966 MB OCCLUDED LOW WELL N OF THE 
REGION CONTINUING SW ALONG 25N56W TO OVER HISPANIOLA BECOMING A 
SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE REGION. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
ENTERS THE E ATLC OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA AFRICA NEAR 
22N16W EXTENDING WSW TO 19N23W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 17N35W. 
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS N OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BETWEEN THESE FRONTAL 
SYSTEMS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 23N42W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE