000 AXNT20 KNHC 142314 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE S IVORY COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 5N5W ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N49W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION COVERS INLAND OVER IVORY COAST N OF 3N BETWEEN 4W-7W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 40W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. 10 TO 15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS OBSERVED AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE THE SURFACE REMAINS STABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND E GULF WITH MINIMAL LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER...WLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DRAW A SWATH OF MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. MUCH OF THE SW GULF IS EXPERIENCING OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OUT OF THE BASIN TONIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS REACHES THE NW WATERS LATER TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE N CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY E OF JAMAICA CONTINUING SW TO OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 11N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NW OF THE FRONT ACROSS HAITI...JAMAICA...AND ERN CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO OVER THE ERN HALF OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT REACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 962 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 42N50W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N45W CONTINUING TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N57W 20N70W BECOMING STATIONARY AND WEAKENING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEARLY DEFINED ROPE CLOUD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD AND W ATLC. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 23N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA AND EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE. A SECOND COLD FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N11W 22N20W 18N36W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUPPORTS THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON