000
AXNT20 KNHC 141741
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 4N10W 5N25W 2N40W EQ49W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 
1N-7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 19W-21W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 
29N83W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR SHIES ARE OVER THE NE GULF WITH PARTLY CLOUDS 
MULTILAYERED SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. TEMPERATURES 
PRESENTLY RANGE FROM THE 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES...TO THE 60'S 
OVER S TEXAS AND W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SSW FLOW PREVAILS... 
WITH A 110-130 KT JET OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N-28N. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...A COLD FRONT TO 
ENTER THE NW GULF WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA ALONG 20N70W 18N77W 12N81W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE FROM 
THE E PACIFIC IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COSTA RICA AND N 
PANAMA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS N OF 15N SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. 
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N46W TO 25N60W 20N70W. 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE 
FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N43W. A COLD 
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 32N13W TO 
24N20W 20N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT.  
ANOTHER 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 
AT 16N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A VERY BROAD RIDGE IS OVER THE  
ATLANTIC N OF 10N BETWEEN 15W-80W WITH AXIS ALONG 45W. ZONAL FLOW IS S 
OF 10N. EXPECT...BOTH FRONTS TO MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH SHOWERS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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FORMOSA