000
AXNT20 KNHC 140528
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N27W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 
43W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM 15W-26W AND S OF 1N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA 
BETWEEN 44W-49W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A COOL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD 
ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 
29N92W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE E GULF WITH 
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATING THE ENTIRE GULF DRAWING 
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO SUPPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS. 
A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS GREATER THAN 100 KT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH 
WINDS OF 120-140 KT N OF 28N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER THE SE US. EXPECT 
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT E AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERS 
THE GULF SUN EVENING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA EXTENDING 
JUST W OF JAMAICA ALONG 17N80W 11N82W TO INLAND OVER N COSTA RICA. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS N OF 
30N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT 
INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER 
VENEZUELA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BEGIN DISSIPATING SUN NIGHT AS WEAK 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE E GULF EXTENDING INTO THE N AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N57W FROM A LARGE 976 MB OCCLUDED 
LOW WELL N OF THE REGION CONTINUING SW ALONG 26N64W ACROSS THE TURKS 
AND CAICOS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA. GALE FORCE 
WINDS REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N AND WITHIN 180 NM 
W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC 
NEAR 32N20W EXTENDING SW TO 26N27W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 20N38W TO 
15N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 11W AND FRONT. THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES TO THE 
CANARY ISLANDS. THIS FRONT ALSO BISECTS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
WITH A 1016 MB HIGH NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 23N48W AND A SECOND 1016 MB 
HIGH SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 17N29W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE