000
AXNT20 KNHC 132331
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2215 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED S GUINEA NEAR 9N14W ALONG 5N20W 3N30W EQ40W 
TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 19W-25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A COOL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR HOUSTON 
TEXAS. 10 TO 15 KT SURFACE FLOW IS OBSERVED AROUND THE RIDGE WITH 20 KT 
NLY WINDS BEING CONFINED TO THE ERN GULF. A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER THE AREA...BESIDES FLORIDA WHERE CLEAR SKIES 
PREVAIL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN BEGINNING TO 
DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC INTO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING 
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A JETSTREAM OF 120-140 KT IS ALSO NOTED ACROSS THE 
ERN GULF COAST STATES. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT E 
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES THE NW WATERS LATE SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REACHING ERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W 
WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NW OF JAMAICA NEAR 19N79W THEN 
S ALONG 17N81W 13N82W ACROSS SRN NICARAGUA TO NEAR 11N86W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES 
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT. NW TO N 
WINDS UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED 
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY 
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA. 
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 10N 
AFFECTING COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE ERN GULF 
EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 982 MB OCCLUDED LOW NEAR 35N68W ENTERING 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N64W CONTINUING SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 
23N74W TO ERN CUBA AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN. GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN 
BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 27N. MOST OF THE STRONGER SHOWER 
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT HAS MOVED E OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 
28N BETWEEN 55W-62W. RECENT LIGHTNING DATA ALSO INDICATES ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD. FARTHER E...A WEAK SURFACE 
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 21N55W. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 50W SUPPORTS THE SURFACE RIDGE ACCOMPANIED 
BY DRY AIR ALOFT. A COLD FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS ALONG 32N25W 24N32W 18N46W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM THE AZORES ALONG 27W SUPPORTS THE FRONT. THIS UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE E SIDE OF THE 
ITCZ. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON