000
AXNT20 KNHC 130555
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF SIERRA 
LEONE NEAR 8.5N13W...WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W EQ50W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 
21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W 
AND 37W...AND ALSO FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY 
WINDS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AND 
CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. NOW...A COOL AND 
DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM 
OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE ENTIRE 
AREA. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN 
BASIN...BRINGING COOL AND FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS INFLUENCING MOST 
OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN EAST OF 80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM...SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THIS 
REGION. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NORTHWEST 
BASIN. THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN BELIZE 
ALONG 23N82W 19N85W 16N89W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED 
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD 
WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MARINE 
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW 10 TO 20 KT TRADEWINDS OVER 
MOST OF THE AREA.

OF SIGNIFICANCE...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW REMAINS OF 
ASH CLOUD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W 
AND 65W FROM THE MONTSERRAT SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO. MARINERS 
SHOULD EXERCISES CAUTION AS REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD IMPACT 
MARINE OPERATIONS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A 995 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC  
CENTERED NEAR 30N76W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE 
LOW CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA ALONG 
26N77W 22N80W. MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE 
AROUND THE LOW COVERS FROM 26N TO BEYOND THE DISCUSSION 
AREA...BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NORTH OF 27N 
WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 
HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS 
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 
PUERTO RICO ALONG 24N40W 18N50W 19N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 50 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ARE NORTH 
OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 50W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH TWO MAIN SURFACE 1016 MB HIGHS OVER THE 
FAR EASTERN BASIN CENTERED NEAR 22N24W...AND CENTRAL BASIN 
CENTERED NEAR 22N55W. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA