000
AXNT20 KNHC 130000
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N30W 1N45W TO BRAZIL NEAR 
1S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF 
LIBERIA FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 10W-15W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG 
THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 45W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 998 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF 
TAMPA NEAR 28N83W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N87W 17N92W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS 
NE FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
30N78W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR 
OVER S FLORIDA FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO CAPE CANAVERAL. MORE 
RAIN IS IN THE COLD SECTOR OVER N FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. LOW 
CEILINGS ARE OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N W OF 86W. BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S 
OF 22N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW PREVAILS... WITH A 110-130 
KT JET OVER THE N GULF N OF 24N. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN 
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. 
EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN TO 983 MB AND MOVE E TO JUST 
W OF BERMUDA IN 24 HOURS WITH RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND S 
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO CENTRAL CUBA.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE IS OVER THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
RAIN IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC 
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER COSTA RICA AND N PANAMA. THE 
TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF 65W FROM 17N-19N. MOSTLY 
FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE AREA 
WITH 20-25 KT WINDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF 80W SUPPRESSING 
DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL 
CUBA TO HONDURAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. 

OF SIGNIFICANCE...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN ASH CLOUD OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 61W-66W FROM THE MONTSERRAT 
SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISES CAUTION AS 
REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD IMPACT MARINE OPERATIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N 
FLORIDA N OF 29N BETWEEN 77W-82W DUE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO 
FRONTAL SYSTEM. A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 
22N66W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N37W TO 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 21N50W 18N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER A LARGE 
AREA N OF 27N W OF FRONT TO 58W. ANOTHER 1014 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 20N29W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 
50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-50W. ZONAL 
FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC 
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N66W TO CENTRAL CUBA IN 24 HOURS 
WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 
32N22W AND EXTEND S TO 20N40W WITH SHOWERS.     

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA