000 AXNT20 KNHC 121742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 1N31W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR W OF 38W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 10W-15W INCLUDING THE SW COAST OF AFRICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AT 12/1500 UTC...A DEEPENING 997 MB LOW IS IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N87W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 22N91W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO S MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW NE NEAR 27N85W THEN E TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA. THE UPPER SUPPORT OF THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NE MISSISSIPPI TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N92W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE GULF WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N87W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR TALLAHASSEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA N OF 26N BETWEEN 86W-90W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N87W TO OVER S MEXICO/NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N93W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND ALABAMA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE FLORIA PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD S OVER THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A 1020 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GOING TO MOVE RAPIDLY E/NE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CLEARING THE GULF TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY STABLE AIR GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N. THE FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN LATER THIS EVENING...THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOTE OF SIGNIFICANCE... SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO ON MONTSERRAT IN THE LESSER ANTILLES ERUPTED YESTERDAY AT 1715 UTC. A LARGE ASH CLOUD REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM THE SUMMIT TO 16N66W. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISES CAUTION AS REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD IMPACT MARINE OPERATIONS. ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM COVER THE W ATLC FROM 28N-33N W OF 73W TO INLAND OVER THE SE US. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N45W TO 19N61W DISSIPATING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER SUPPORT OF THIS FRONT IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC MOSTLY N OF THE REGION BUT CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/90 NM E OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALLACE