000
AXNT20 KNHC 120545
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W EQ50W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W AND 
26W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENTERING 
THE NORTHWEST BASIN...SUPPORTING A SURFACE 1004 MB LOW NEAR 
27N93W. THIS SYSTEM IS DEEPENING RATHER QUICKLY AND IT IS MOVING 
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO PAPANTIA MEXICO NEAR 
20N97W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER 
TO NEAR 21N88W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM IS 
BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF NORTH OF 
23N...WITH THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
LOUISIANA COAST. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 
10 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO THE FAR EASTERN 
BASIN...AND NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. 
LOOK FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 998 MB 
IN 24 HOUR WHILE MOVING EASTWARD TO TAMPA FLORIDA WITH 
CONVECTION.THE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER 
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUPPRESSING DEEP 
STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TRADEWINDS OVER MOST OF THE 
AREA. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NW BASIN WITH 
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

OF SIGNIFICANCE...A LARGE VOLCANIC ERUPTION OCCURRED ON 
MONTSERRAT SOUFRIERE HILLS AT 1715 UTC THURSDAY. SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A DENSE ASH CLOUD ASCENDED TO A HIGH 
ALTITUDE...AND MOVED EAST TO THE ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...PRESENTLY 
VOLCANIC ASH IS NOTED FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 
63W...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE AND DOMINICA. A 
SIGMET...INDIA 2...HAS 
BEEN ISSUED FOR AVIATION INTERESTS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N45W EXTENDING 
SOUTHWEST TO NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ALONG 26N50W 23N55W 21N60W 
19N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. 
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ARE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 68W. THIS 
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH MORE 
CONVECTION. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE 
EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 32N20W TO 28N27W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY AIR ALOFT IS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N. IN 24 HOURS...A DEEP 
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR WESTERN 
ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER 
ANTILLES.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA