000 AXNT20 KNHC 120002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N30W 2N40W 1S50W . WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N91W PRODUCING RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS NEAR 27N97W MOVING E. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO INLAND MEXICO ALONG 23N98W 20N101W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO THE E TEXAS COAST NEAR 30N94W. LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO N OF 20N BETWEEN 90W-100W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA. THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS... WITH A 110-130 KT JET OVER THE N GULF. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN TO 998 MB AND MOVE E TO JUST W OF TAMPA FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N67W 18N77W 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 20-25 KT WINDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. OF SIGNIFICANCE...A LARGE VOLCANIC ERUPTION OCCURRED ON MONTSERRAT SOUFRIERE HILLS AT 1715 UTC TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A DENSE ASH CLOUD ASCENDED TO A HIGH ALTITUDE...AND MOVED E TO THE ATLANTIC...DUE TO 50 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS. A SIGMET...INDIA 2...HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AVIATION INTERESTS. PRESENTLY VOLCANIC ASH IS NOTED FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 56W-62W TO INCLUDE THE ISLAND OF GUADELOUPE. ATLANTIC OCEAN. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N51W TO HISPANIOLA ALONG 23N60W 20N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 48W-78W. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N23W TO 29N28W. A 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N20W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N BETWEEN 10W-40W WITH AXIS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO EQ30W. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N35W TO THE LEEWARD ISLAND IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ FORMOSA