000
AXNT20 KNHC 102341
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST WED FEB 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 4N30W 2N40W  
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W TO 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 
8W-10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
10W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA NEAR 
36N95W PRODUCING RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE W GULF FROM S TEXAS TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ALONG 26N97W 20N95W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE 
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE E GULF AND FLORIDA HAS MOSTLY FAIR 
WEATHER. EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT NE 
WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW 
PREVAILS...WITH A 110-130 KT JET OVER THE N GULF. PATCHES OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF 
EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF...FLORIDA...AND W CUBA WHERE SUBSIDENCE 
REMAINS. EXPECT...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE W GULF NEAR S 
TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 21N77W 16N87W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 20-25 KT 
WINDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING 
DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HAITI TO 
HONDURAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N62W TO E CUBA ALONG 
26N70W 21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE 
FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-78W. A 1020 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N68W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N33W TO N OF THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 27N40W 21N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N21W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
35W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 10W-35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N BETWEEN 10W-40W WITH AXIS FROM 
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO EQ30W. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC COLD 
FRONT TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N48W TO HAITI IN 24 
HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE E AND REACH 32N20W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.    

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

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FORMOSA