000
AXNT20 KNHC 092336
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 2N30W EQ40W 
TO THE NORTHEAST COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF N FLORIDA 
NEAR 29N83W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 
26N84W 22N90W 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND S FLORIDA FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 80W-86W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE 
MAJORITY OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL 
FLOW PREVAILS. PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH 
CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W 
CUBA WHERE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO RACE 
INTO THE W ATLANTIC IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND A 1026 MB HIGH TO 
MOVE TO E TEXAS AND PRODUCE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE GULF.    

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE 
AREA WITH 20-25 KT WINDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF N 
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH VERY STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...THE GULF OF 
MEXICO COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO N BELIZE IN 24 HOURS 
WITH SHOWERS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N68W. A COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W TO HISPANIOLA 
ALONG 24N50W 21N60W 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N 
OF THE FRONT. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC W OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 28N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO S OF THE CAPE 
VERDE ISLANDS. EXPECT THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT TO BE OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N61W TO E CUBA IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.   
ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND REACH 
32N30W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA