000
AXNT20 KNHC 090604
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE TO 5N20W
TO 2N30W 2N39W...CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO COASTAL NORTHEASTERN 
BRAZIL TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE 
SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 30W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN
30W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA. A MIDDLE 
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM COASTAL
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO 26N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN WATERS.
THE COLD FRONT RUNS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF 
TEXAS AS FAR TO THE SOUTH AS 27N...BEFORE CURVING MORE TO THE 
WEST TO 26N102W NORTHERN MEXICO. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N 
TO THE LOUSIANA GULF OF MEXICO COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 93W.
 
FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO COASTAL NICARAGUA...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH
OF THE LINE FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO 26N60W BEYOND
32N39W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS PART OF THE TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT THAT CONTINUES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
NEAR 30N48W TO 23N60W TO THE WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THE CURRENT COLD 
FRONT IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. THE TROUGH 
PASSES OVER BERMUDA TO 22N70W TO 17N70W. THE FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N52W TO 28N60W TO 20N70W. THE FRONT CONTINUES AS A 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 20N70W TO 16N77W TO COASTAL 
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W. ONE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM TO 
THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 24N TO 29N. A SECOND TROUGH IS TO THE 
WEST OF THE FRONT...WITHIN 200 NM TO THE NORTH OF 26N...WITHIN 
200 NM TO 300 NM FROM 21N TO 26N...AND 400 NM AWAY FROM THE 
FRONT ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE WEST OF 75W...REACHING THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N73W 
26N61W BEYOND 32N50W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 
16N BETWEEN TO THE WEST OF 80W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MOSTLY ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT REACHES
THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI NEAR 19N72W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N TO 23N BETWEEN 
20W AND 30W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N30W TO 5N37W TO 3S30W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDEGE THAT GOES
FROM 32N24W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
29N30W...TO 22N46W TO 19N64W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT