000 AXNT20 KNHC 071750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN FEB 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE SRN IVORY COAST IN AFRICA NEAR 5N5W ALONG 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY BUILDING S FROM A 1022 MB HIGH OVER N ARKANSAS. THE RIDGE...ALONG WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...IS ENHANCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE...REACHING 20 KT IN SOME AREAS. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME SLIGHT MOISTURE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NW GULF SUPPORTING AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ENTERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN BY FAR ERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W CONTINUING ACROSS NE JAMAICA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER NEAR 15N83W WHERE IT LINES THE BORDER BETWEEN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA INTO THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS...AS WELL AS N OF HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 85W-88W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC ALONG 75W WHICH EXTENDS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BETWEEN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE AREA TO EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...EXTENSIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER BOTH THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS ALSO ENHANCING THE FAIR WEATHER. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N71W TO NW OF COLOMBIA NEAR 12N77W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM AN OCCLUDED 976 MB LOW NEAR 29N62W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N59W ALONG 26N64W TO TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT...AND 75 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH CLIPS THE AREA W OF THE FRONT FROM 32N67W TO 30N73W INTO GEORGIA NEAR 32N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 30N55W TO 24N59W DEPICTING AN AREA OF CONVERGING SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE FRONT...AND ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 75W. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N41W...AND SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 44W. HOWEVER...A SECOND COLD FRONT PROTRUDES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N18W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 23N34W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR 20N51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON