000
AXNT20 KNHC 070530
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 AM EST SUN FEB 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 5N20W 3N30W 2N42W TO COASTAL 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN 16W AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...TO CUBA ALONG 80W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND TO HONDURAS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT JUST 
EXITED THE AREA...HAS BEEN CATCHING UP TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. 
THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 23N79W IN THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ON WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE AREA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT 
PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...TO THE GULF 
OF HONDURAS. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CROSSES CENTRAL MEXICO...
AND REACHES THE GULF WATERS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 86W AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE COLD FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH BERMUDA TO 30N66W...TO LONG ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO
EASTERN HONDURAS. THE FRONT BECOMES DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS...INTO EL SALVADOR...INTO THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 11N94W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO
THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W 24N70W 16N82W...
AND FROM HONDURAS TO BELIZE AND GUATEMALA BETWEEN 84W AND 92W...
INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE-SCALE BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
ENTIRE AREA. SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN 
SUBSIDENCE COVER THE AREA TO THE WEST OF 40W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 28N32W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N23W TO 26N30W 21N43W...AND STATIONARY 21N43W 20N51W TO
22N59W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE CLOUD LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N23W TO 26N30W
21N46W 21N57W 27N62W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT