000
AXNT20 KNHC 061127
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N10W TO 6N20W 2N40W 
TO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
2N-5N BETWEEN 24W-30W...FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 30W-36W...AND FROM 
3N-4N BETWEEN 37W-41W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA TO W CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 25N80W 23N83W 
20N85W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS OF RAIN EXTENDING FROM ANDROS 
ISLAND BAHAMAS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO MATANZAS CUBA 
MOVING E. THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS SURFACE RIDGING WITH  
15-20 KT NW WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER...WHILE THE NE GULF 
STILL HAS BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W 
PRODUCING 90-130 KT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
FOR...CONTINUED 15-20 KT NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH A GOOD 
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT REACHES AS FAR 
SOUTH AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W MOVING E WITH BANDS OF 
RAIN. ELSEWHERE...LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 14N E OF 67W...AND OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 76W-84W. FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N 
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 68W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. 
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO 
HONDURAS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N74W TO THE STRAITS 
OF FLORIDA AT 25N80W. BANDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 
90 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N30W TO THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 24N40W 20N50W 
19N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. GALE 
FORCE WINDS ARE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 
45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 
45W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND TO 32N58W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT...THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N20W WITH SHOWERS. GALE FORCE 
WINDS WILL BE E OF BOTH FRONTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA