000 AXNT20 KNHC 052333 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM N LIBERIA NEAR 7N10W ALONG 5N20W 3N30W 1N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 26W-51W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO S OF THE EQUATOR W OF 39W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SEVERE WEATHER IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1000 MB LOW OVER GEORGIA NEAR 32N83W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF TALLAHASSEE CONTINUING S ALONG 27N85W 23N86W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W. A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING UP TO 250 NM E OF THE AXIS. A STRONG LINE OF STORMS IS ANALYZED ALONG A SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR DAYTONA FLORIDA TO FORT MYERS CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 24N84W. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS AS WELL AS TORNADO WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG THIS LINE. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 97W. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS FLORIDA BRINGING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PENINSULA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 72W. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE BASIN IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GULF. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF REACHES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY...EXTEND OFF THE NRN COAST OF FLORIDA INTO THE SW N ATLC AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ERN GULF. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE AREA IMMEDIATELY TO THE E SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 72W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A DEEPENED 948 MB LOW NEAR 45N44W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N36W CONTINUING ALONG 25N43W 20N57W BECOMING A DYING COLD FRONT TO 20N67W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 26N AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF 29N BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS...AS WELL AS N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT TO 31W. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 46N45W WITH AXIS CONTINUING SWD. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS SW TO NEAR 6N44W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH S OF PORTUGAL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON