000
AXNT20 KNHC 051745
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST THU FEB 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COASTAL AREAS NEAR THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER
TO 6N20W 3N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 42W...AND INTO 
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL TO 2S50W. STRONG SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W...AND
FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IS MOVING INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO...FROM THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 
26N87W...TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
TO THE CENTRAL ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN MEXICO. THE FRONT IS 
BEING SUPPORTED BY ONE PART OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT 
CURRENTLY IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER PART OF A TROUGH IS ALONG A LINE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
OF TEXAS TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
CLEARLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PART OF THE TROUGH THAT COVERS 
THE AREA FROM TEXAS AND LOUISIANA INTO COASTAL MEXICO. HIGH 
LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE U.S.A. GULF 
COAST STATES...ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...AND ACROSS GEORGIA AND 
BEYOND. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N83W
25N85W 22N87W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED TO THE NORTH
OF 26N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE 
ENTIRE AREA...POSSIBLY RELATED TO SIMILAR CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS 
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 80W.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CURVE ANTICYCLONICALLY FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA TO THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 24N39W. THIS 
TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO
30N40W 23N50W TO 21N58W...AND DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 21N58W
TO 20N68W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
26N41W 28N38W BEYOND 32N35W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED TO 
THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 26N WITH SEA HEIGHTS 
RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 20 FEET...AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT 
TO THE NORTH OF 28N WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 13 FEET TO
25 FEET. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA AROUND
A RIDGE THAT GOES FROM 30N20W TO 27N24W TO 15N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT