000 AXNT20 KNHC 051119 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N20W 3N40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-20W...AND BETWEEN 38W-41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N87W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N88W 18N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N80W. LOW CEILINGS...RAIN ...AND DRIZZLE ARE OVER THE MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COASTAL STATES E OF 95W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 85W-91W. THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING E. ELSEWHERE...THE TEXAS COAST AND NW GULF W OF 95W S HAS MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE COLD FRONT ARE STRONG WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS E OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 78W PRODUCING 90-130 KT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE NE TO NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N76W AND DEEPEN TO 992 MB WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND RAIN EXTENDING S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN HAVE 15-20 KT NW SURFACE FLOW WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 0900 UTC...THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO GO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF 17N MOVING E. ELSEWHERE... A RESIDUAL CLOUD LINE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO JAMAICA ALONG 20N70W 18N79W WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LINE. SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 16N E OF 68W... AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-82W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ALONG 78W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO BELIZE WITH CONVECTION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N40W TO THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 23N50W 21N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-34N BETWEEN 36W-42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N WITHIN 420 NM E OF FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N13W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE NEW W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N76W TO 30N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N27W WITH SHOWERS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE E OF BOTH FRONTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ FORMOSA