000 AXNT20 KNHC 042330 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 04 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM N LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ54W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER ERN TEXAS ON THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SC AND SE UNITED STATES. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1007 MB LOW S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29N91W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW ALONG 24N93W TO THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE E OF THE LOW TO NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND ACROSS NRN FLORIDA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W OF THE LOW TO A SECOND 1007 MB LOW OVER S TEXAS NEAR 27N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN COVER THE AREA W OF 87W. ,LIGHTING DATA SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONGER LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW ACROSS SRN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. COASTAL OFFICES HAVE ISSUED FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS ACROSS MANY PORTIONS OF THE GULF COASTLINE FROM NW FLORIDA TO E TEXAS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FRI N OF 23N E OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E GULF. ALSO...EXPECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS DRAWING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 75W. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE BASIN IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA DUE TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER COLOMBIA MAINTAINS FRESH TO STRONG ELY TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT MOISTURE TO BEGIN MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF MOVES EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING CURRENTLY COVERS THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 75W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A DEEPENED 958 MB LOW NEAR 40N50W ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N46W CONTINUING SW ALONG 26N54W TO 26N65W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG 30N45W 25N54W 20N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND TROUGH AXIS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING FROM THE COLD FRONT TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NOVA SCOTIA SE TO NEAR 22N44W. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH...AS WELL AS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 30N BETWEEN 37W-45W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N26W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE. $$ WALTON