000
AXNT20 KNHC 041116
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
705 AM EST THU FEB 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W TO 2N30W TO 
THE NE BRAZIL NEAR EQ51W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W-30W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 
27N98W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE MEXICO AT 25N102W. 

A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E TO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 
28N94W 27N90W. LOW CEILINGS...RAIN...AND DRIZZLE ARE OVER THE W 
GULF...E TEXAS...AND NE MEXICO W OF 90W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS 
RAIN OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 88W. ELSEWHERE...THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA AND FLORIDA S OF 30N HAVE MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. WINDS 
OVER THE NW GULF ARE PREDOMINATELY 20-30 KT. WINDS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF ARE 15-20 KT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 
60'S OVER S FLORIDA AND S TEXAS...WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 
40'S AND 50'S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH GULF STATES. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH 
AXIS ALONG 82W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W 
GULF... TEXAS...AND MEXICO W OF 90W...AND OVER THE NE GULF N OF 
25N BETWEEN 80W-90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SE GULF AND 
FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO 
MOVE NE TO S MISSISSIPPI WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT... WARM 
FRONT... AND RAIN. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA S OF BELIZE TO 
PANAMA. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG 
TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SE FLOW WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. 
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N51W TO THE S BAHAMAS 
ALONG 27N60W 24N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF 
THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
31N36W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E ALONG 30N28W 
27N33W 27N40W. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
26N28W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS...FOR THE W 
ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E TO 32N42W WITH SHOWERS. ALSO 
EXPECT A GALE TO FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N48W 
WITHIN 6 HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA